Originally Posted by ElectricDave
But if the battery really is that useless, then Renault will lose a fortune - the first failed battery won't have recouped anything its full value via the lease before having to be replaced by another
Well, we are often prone to treat these companies like they don't really know what they are talking about. Look at it another way, say they do and they have made a calculation that a 6k annual mileage battery will last 8 years. If they give a retail price of ~£8.5k for insurance then that would mean the cost to them is probably ~£6 to 7k. Divide £7k by 8 and so they figure they should charge at least £875 pa. So they rent it out at £925 to cover admin, they get the battery, which is still quite valuable after it degrades below 75% and can likely be remanufactured at a fraction of the original cost, and they are still quids in, based on an 8 year life.
Anyone that has ever experienced rechargeable batteries, which is basically everyone, will know some last longer than others. So some packs will last only 6 years, some 10 years. A few outliers may only last 4 years or as long as 12 years, but this is all within the maths Renault is working to.
So, no, I don't think the pricing is geared towards the presumption of a much longer life than 8 years. I'd tend to think they are expecting, say, 25% failures at year 6 and 50% at year 8. At those figures, they're still no making money but they aren't losing it. I don't think the battery rental is really seen as a money-making opportunity but a service to go along with the money-making car sales, so in that was they
see it as an incentivisation to reduce the purchase price (although others/many clearly disagree with their approach).
LMO batteries just aren't designed to last too long. It is not a case of 'if' they fail, but simply 'when'. If you think through the above points, you'll probably come to the conclusion that anyone who buys when they could lease (for pretty much the same money as purchasing) are nuts. I don't know for sure, no one does just yet, but I suspect the number of happy EV owners with +10yr old LMO batteries will be small.